LABOURMARKET PROFILE PROFILE

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3    Labour Market Profile

3.1 Introduction
3.2 Population Overview
3.3 Labour Force Overview
3.4 Aspects of Employment Trends 1981-1997
3.5 Aspects of Unemployment Trends 1981-1997
3.6 Employment Outlook
3.7 Concluding Remarks

3.1 Introduction

This section provides a statistical overview of a number of key factors that have influenced the development of the labour market since 1981. These include population, the labour force and non-active population, employment and unemployment. This overview is useful for two reasons. One, it illustrates significant labour market change, and, two, it identifies the principal causes of such change. The latter assumes significance in the econometric analysis.

3.2 Population Overview

The trend in the total population of Ireland has been somewhat varied from 1981-1997 (Table 3.1). Starting from a level of 3,443,000 in 1981, the population rose by nearly 100,000 in the five years to 1986, but then declined slightly in the period between 1986 and 1991. The upward trend resumed in the 1990's, in the six years between 1991 and 1997, the Irish population increased from 3,526,000 to 3,661,000 - a rise of over 130,000.

Table 3.1: Total Population, 1981-1997

		Males (000's)	Females (000's)	Total (000's)
	1981	1,729.4	1,713.5	3,442.9
	1986	1,769.7	1,770.7	3,540.4
	1991	1,753.4	1,772.3	3,525.7
	1996	1,800.2	1,825.9	3,626.1
	1997	1,817.2	1,843.4	3,660.6

Source: CSO - Census of Population 1996, LFS 1997 for 1997 estimates

The change in population as evidenced in the above table may be explained by a number of factors such as fertility, life expectancy and migration. The expectation is that this growth will continue. The central forecast for population in the ESRI's recent Medium Term Review 1997-2003 sees the population rising to 3.89 million by the year 2011. This is an increase of over 200,000 on the 1997 population size.

3.3 Labour Force Overview

The size of the labour force and the growth in the potential labour force are, however, influenced not only by purely demographic trends, but also by factors such as participation in education, changes in retirement patterns and the degree to which women are motivated either to seek employment or engage in domestic or family related activities.

According to Sexton & O'Connell (1996), the boundaries between these different states have become increasingly blurred over time as different groups move in and out of the labour force depending on their personal circumstances, or in response to various inducements, or under the influence of more general economy-wide changes in conditions. The increasing incidence of more flexible working arrangements has also facilitated these changes.

The Labour Force and the Non-Active Population Aged 15 Years or Over

Table 3.2 gives a sub-division by "Principal Economic Status" of the Irish adult population (ie aged 15 years or over) covering the period from 1981 to 1997. The table provides information relating to the Labour Force, the number of persons in education, those on home duties and "others", the last mentioned category relating mainly to older persons who have retired from the workforce or who are unable to work due to permanent sickness or disability.

Table 3.2: The Labour Force and the Non-Active Population Aged 15 Years or Over

Year		Labour Force (000's)		Education (000's)		Home Duties (000's)	Others (000's)		Population 15+ (000's)		Labour Force Part. Rate %
Men
1981	912.5		97.3		1.0			183.1	1,193.9	76.4
1986	920.3		121.4		0.4			201.9	1,244.0	73.9
1991	911.2		140.0		2.7			216.6	1,270.5	71.6
1996	960.3		166.9		4.1			227.4	1,358.7	70.6
1997	956.3		176.1		9.2			241.5	1,383.1	69.1
Women
1981	358.6		103.0		661.5			82.6	1,205.7	29.7
1986	409.2		123.8		653.4			85.4	1,271.8	32.1
1991	471.6		143.0		592.8			107.1	1,314.5	35.8
1996	573.6		172.7		549.0			112.5	1,407.8	40.7
1997	561.1		181.9		588.0			101.0	1,432.0	39.2
Total
1981	1,271.1		200.3		662.5			265.7	2,399.6	53.0
1986	1,329.5		245.2		653.8			287.3	2,515.8	52.8
1991	1,382.8		283.0		595.5			323.7	2,585.0	53.4
1996	1,533.9		339.6		553.1			339.9	2,766.5	55.4
1997	1,517.4		358.0		597.2			342.5	2,815.1	53.9

Source: CSO - Census of Population 1996, LFS 1997 for 1997 estimates

A notable feature of the data are the low rates of overall labour force growth in the 1980's compared with the first half of the 1990's. The annual average expansion in the labour force between 1981 and 1991 was over 10,000 compared with over 20,000 between 1991 and 1997. The difference is mainly due to the effect of emigration in the 1980's, in addition to a slowing in the rate of growth in female labour force participation.

Another feature to emerge from these tables relates to the number of persons aged 15 years or over in education. Table 3.2 shows that the total numbers involved rose from just over 200,000 in 1981 to 358,000 in 1997. Given the difficult economic circumstances which prevailed in the period under discussion, one can only speculate as to what the increased levels of unemployment and emigration would have been had this increase not taken place. However, of greater significance as identified by Sexton & O'Connell (1996) in this regard is that this rise in educational participation signalled a continuing augmentation in the level of human capital in the population as a whole.

The fundamentally different trends for males and females in recent decades is perhaps best illustrated by referring to the rate of labour force participation. The aggregate male labour force participation rate decreased from over 76% in 1981 to less than 70% in 1997, while the rate for females rose from just under 30% to 39%. The offsetting participation trends for males and females gave rise to a situation where the overall aggregate rates for all persons have not changed very much over the period under discussion. The labour force participation rate for males and females combined was 53% in 1981 and it was only marginally greater than this in 1997, having varied slightly in the intervening period.

Sexton & O'Connell (1996) identified the following trends:

• the declining numbers in the youth labour force can be mainly attributed to falling participation in the work force due to greater involvement in education
• female participation in the workforce rose substantially
• labour force participation rates for persons aged 65 years and over fell significantly for both males and females between 1981 and 1997, due primarily to the rising incidence of early retirement
• labour force participation rates are related to the level of educational attainment.

The ESRI's Medium Term Report 1997-2003 predicts that the natural increase in the labour supply in Ireland will remain high over the next decade reflecting the high birth rate of the 1970's. While the growth in the labour force was halted in the late 1980's by the rise in emigration, this factor is not expected to play a major role in the period to 2005. However, from the middle of the next decade, the natural increase will fall off rapidly as the effects of the down-turn in the birth rate in the early 1980's feeds through. This will result in the labour force growth rate being maintained at over 1% per annum until the year 2010.

The ESRI suggests that over the next 15 years, the rise in female participation will account for over a quarter of the increase in labour supply. This increase is in addition to the natural increase in the female labour supply at existing participation rates, and it is an important factor in Ireland's exceptional rate of growth.

3.4 Aspects of Employment Trends 1981-1997

High Level Trends

The principal trends in both employment and unemployment are set out below. Table 3.3 shows that total employment fell by some 46,000 between 1981 and 1986. Unemployment escalated during this period from a level of c. 133,000 in 1981 to c. 238,000 in 1986. Table 3.3 demonstrates how the number of persons at work declined while the size of the labour force increased, due to natural population growth and increasing labour force participation by women. Between 1986 and 1996, unemployment fell from c. 238,000 to c. 227,000. The 1997 LFS puts this figure at 178,900, representing a significant further reduction. On the employment side, the number of persons at work totalled 1,091,100 in 1986. This increased to 1,307,200 by 1996 and to 1,338,400 by 1997. These figures indicate that significant improvement has occurred in the labour market situation. The seasonally adjusted standardised unemployment report published by the CSO puts the average 1997 unemployment rate at 10.3% which is a very significant reduction on those levels recorded in the late 1980's/early 1990's.

Table 3.3: Numbers at Work, Unemployed, 1981-1997

	Year	At Work (000's)	Unemployed (000's)	Labour Force (000's)
	1981	1,137.8	133.3	1,271.1
	1986	1,091.1	238.3	1,329.4
	1991	1,149.0	233.7	1,382.7
	1996	1,307.2	226.7	1,533.9
	1997	1,338.4	178.9	1,517.3

Source: CSO - Census of Population 1996, LFS 1997 for 1997 estimates

O'Connell (1996) reviewing the transformation of the Irish labour market during the period of rapid industrialisation over the thirty year period from 1961-1991 argues that five overarching trends can be observed:

1. A secular contraction in agriculture, and more generally, a substantial decline in the importance of positions deriving income from property ownership, and consequently, an increase in the importance of wage and salary dependent employment.
2. A marked expansion in public sector employment.
3. A general upgrading of the quality of positions in the labour market, with well over half of all those at work occupying middle class positions by 1991.
4. A substantial increase in the number of women at work (see below).
5. A marked increase in unemployment - itself entailing a further augmentation of the numbers dependent on the state for their income.

Employment by Gender

Table 3.4 shows that the number of males at work in the Irish economy fell between 1981 and 1991 (by over 50,000) but has increased significantly since then to an all time high in 1997 of c.825,000. The number of females at work rose between 1981-1997 by more than 175,000.

Table 3.4: Males and Females at Work, 1981 – 1997

	All Sectors	Males (000's)	Females (000's)	Persons (000's)
	1981	808.7	329.1	1,137.8
	1986	741.3	349.8	1,091.1
	1991	743.9	405.1	1,149.0
	1996	802.6	504.6	1,307.2
	1997	825.6	512.8	1,338.4

Source: CSO - Census of Population 1996, LFS 1997 for 1997 estimates

Interestingly, female employment trends rose consistently throughout the whole period under discussion, even in the recessionary phases. A significant part of this rise relates to part-time work (see Table 3.7).

Sectoral Trends

Table 3.5: Persons at Work by Sector 1981-1996

	1981 (000's)	1986 (000's)	1991 (000's)	1996 (000's)
Agriculture, Forestry & Fisheries	188.5	166.9	158.2	134.0
Manufacturing*	263.7	238.4	236.7	266.6
Building & Construction	102.2	75.9	76.6	87.4
Transport, Communication & Storage	69.3	66.8	69.3	78.2
Other Market Services & Non-Market Services**	514.1	543.1	608.2	741.0
Total	1,137.8	1,091.1	1,149.0	1,307.2

Source: CSO - Census of Population 1996.

* Includes, Mining, Quarrying and Turf Production, Electricity, Gas and Water Supply as well as other manufacturing industries.

** Includes Professional Services, Commerce, Insurance, Finance and Business Services, Public Administration and Defence, etc.

Table 3.5 shows the transformation of the structure of employment between 1981-1996. A number of trends are evident:

• The number at work in agriculture continued its secular decline from 188,500 in 1981 to 134,000 in 1996.
• Manufacturing employment underwent a severe decline in the early 1980's, the total number of persons at work falling by some 25,000 plus during the recessionary period between 1981 and 1986. There followed a modest fall in the late 1980's. However recent years have seen fairly significant job gains in this sector, with the numbers at work rising from an estimated 236,700 in 1991 to 266,600 in 1996.
• Other Market Services and Non-Market Services recorded significant growth throughout the period 1981 to 1996, and in 1996 accounted for some 741,000 employed persons.

Changes in the Occupational Structure of Employment

Different industries have notably different occupational profiles, and occupational profiles themselves have evolved within industries over time (Table 3.6). This has applied particularly to management and professional activities at all levels, which have assumed greater importance within enterprises, irrespective of the economic fortunes of these enterprises. Service related activities have also become relatively more important. In contrast, the extent of manual activities has been in decline.

Duggan, Hughes & Sexton (1997) have illustrated the extent of these changes for major occupational groups. Not surprisingly, the figures indicate a decline in the share of total employment attributable to those with agricultural occupations, from 16 % in 1981 to 11% in 1995. Similarly, the figures indicate a decrease in share for both skilled and unskilled workers, the overall proportion in the case of labourers declining from 6.4% in 1981 to 3.8% in 1995. However, the proportions relating to managers and professional workers increased significantly. An increase in magnitude of a similar order was recorded in the case of service related occupations.

Table 3.6: Employment by Occupational Group 1981-1995

	1981				1991		1995
Occupation		No	%	No		%		No	%
Agricultural		177,440	15.6	143,900		12.7		135,300	11.0
Managers		56,952	5.0	71,000		6.3		84,400	6.8
Proprietors in Service Industries		37,575	3.3	42,700		3.8		39,600	3.2
Professional Workers		106,821	9.4	130,800		11.5		157,000	12.7
Associate Profession Workers		49,093	4.3	58,300		5.1		66,500	5.4
Clerical Occupations		157,942	13.9	158,000		13.9		169,800	13.8
Skilled Maintenance Workers		54,330	4.8	51,700		4.6		56,900	4.6
Skilled Production Workers		109,196	9.6	99,000		8.7		98,800	8.0
Production Operatives		99,494	8.7	88,000		7.8		103,400	8.4
Transport and Communications		50,164	4.4	44,900		4.0		49,500	4.0
Sales Workers		74,180	6.5	82,700		7.3		98,300	8.0
Security Workers		31,274	2.7	33,100		2.9		35,800	2.9
Personal Service Worker		61,041	5.4	77,500		6.8		91,300	7.4
Labourers		72,325	6.4	51,100		4.5		46,400	3.8
Total		1,137,827	100.0	1,133,500		100.0		1,233,600	100.0

Source: FÁS/ESRI Manpower Forecasting Studies (1997) - Duggan, Hughes & Sexton

Census of Population 1981

Labour Force Surveys - 1991 and 1995

The changes in occupational structure represent both a general upgrading of available positions, but also, the closing off of opportunities in manual occupations. Changes in the demand for labour have had far reaching implications for the distribution of work opportunities. The new types of jobs on offer required either qualifications and/or personal skills and a degree of flexibility not characteristic of traditional forms of employment. It was therefore the case that many who suffered job loss from traditional areas could not adapt, or did not have particular skills or aptitudes associated with the new vacancies. Therefore, for them, unemployment and eventually long-term unemployment, becomes the inevitable consequence, especially for older workers.

Trends in Part-Time Work

Table 3.7 shows that part-time workers accounted for some 12% of the total number of persons at work in 1997. A significant majority, some 73%, of part-time workers were female. In addition, the incidence of part-time working has increased significantly since the mid 1980's. Table 3.7 shows that the share of part-time workers in total employment rose from 6% in 1986 to over 12% in 1997. For males, the proportion of part-time workers rose from 2.5% in 1986 to 5.4% in 1997. The comparative figures for females were 13.5% and 23% respectively.

 

Table 3.7: Total Employment 1986-1997, Distinguishing Part-time Workers

Year	Total (000's)	Full-time (000's)	Part-time (000's)	Part-time %
Men
1986	744.9	726.3	18.6	2.5
1991	754.5	727.9	26.5	3.5
1993	749.4	713.2	36.1	4.8
1997	840.3	794.9	45.4	5.4
Women
1986	350.2	302.7	47.5	13.5
1991	401.4	332.0	69.4	17.2
1993	433.7	342.4	91.3	21.0
1997	539.7	415.2	124.5	23.0
Total
1986	1095.1	1029.0	66.1	6.0
1991	1155.9	1059.9	96.0	8.3
1993	1183.1	1055.7	127.5	10.7
1997	1379.9	1210.0	169.9	12.3

Source: CSO - LFS Special Tabulation based on ILO estimate

Total employment increased by 284,800 between 1986 and 1997. Male employment increased by just under 100,000, of which only 26,800 were part-time jobs. Female employment increased by 189,500 over the same period, but 77,000 were part-time jobs.

3.5 Aspects of Unemployment Trends 1981-1997

The principal aggregate trends in relation to employment over the period 1981 to 1997 have been described in the preceding section. In this section we probe unemployment data.

3.5.1 EU Unemployed Trends

Figure 3.1 details total and long term rates of unemployment in the European Union. The rate of long-term unemployment in the EU was approximately 5% in 1996 which is higher than at any time since 1988. Almost half of those unemployed in 1996 had been looking for a job for at least a year and 30% for two years or more. This is below the peak rate reached in the mid-1980's, but after a decade or more of giving priority to combating long-term unemployment, the problem remains serious and widespread. Indeed, since 1994, the long-term rate has hardly changed at all and remains significantly higher than its low point of just over 3.5% of the labour force in 1992. The proportion of the unemployed who have been out of work for a year or more remains at around 50%.

 

Ireland has suffered from high unemployment over a prolonged period. Unemployment levels climbed steadily in the early 1980's and subsequently accelerated over the remainder of the decade. Complex factors, including external economic conditions, domestic fiscal policies, and, to a lesser extent, demographic growth is thought to have contributed to a sharp increase in unemployment in the early 1980's. Ireland also suffers from an exceptionally high level of long-term unemployment, ie the proportion of the labour force out of work for a year or more.

Figure 3.1: Total and Long-Term Unemployment Rates in the EU, 1986 - 1996

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Source: European Commission - "Employment in Europe 1997"

By comparison with other EU countries, Ireland has not only had one of the highest unemployment rates, but also a long-term unemployment rate considerably in excess of the EU average. The share of long-term unemployment in Ireland was almost 60% in 1996 compared with an EU average of 50%. Table 3.8 below indicates that that share of long-term unemployment fell to less than 55% in 1997.

3.5.2 Unemployment Trends in Ireland

Table 3.8 shows total unemployment and long-term unemployment in Ireland for the period 1985-1997.

Total unemployment increased from c. 219,600 in 1985 to c. 226,000 in 1987 and has fallen since then to c.159,000 in 1997.

 

Table 3.8: Total & Long Term Unemployment, 1985-1997

Duration of Unemployment*		1985 (000's)	1987 (000's)		1990 (000's)		1992 (000's)		1993 (000's)		1994 (000's)		1995 (000's)		1996 (000's)		1997 (000's)
Less than one year	79.7		78.6	59.0		85.1		88.6		76.4		68.1		71.8		67.1
One year or more	139.1		146.4	110.2		116.5		125.4		128.2		103.3		103.3		86.3
Not stated	0.9		1.0	3.2		5.0		6.1		6.4		6.0		3.9		5.7
Total	219.6		226.0	172.4		206.6		220.1		211.0		177.4		179.0		159.0

Source: Labour Force Surveys - based on ILO estimates

* The duration of unemployment is defined as the length of time since a person last worked or began looking for work, whichever is more recent.

With the economic downturn of the early 1990's, there was a corresponding increase in both total and long-term unemployment, with the latter increasing to 128,000 in 1994. By this time, the economy was rapidly expanding again and this gave rise to a substantial decrease in long-term unemployment. In 1996, however, despite a substantial increase in total employment, between 1995-1996, the number unemployed increased by almost 1,600 while the number of long-term unemployed remained the same. In 1997, total unemployment continued to fall with a substantial decrease in long-term unemployment.

Bond (1998), when examining unemployment trends, suggested that economic buoyancy may impact on long-term unemployment by reducing inflows from short-term unemployment or by increasing outflows from long-term unemployment. However, buoyancy may impact selectively on both inflows and outflows. In a situation of high labour demand it is likely that the composition of remaining flows into long-term unemployment becomes more uniformly those with the poorest prospects, which means that other things being equal, so does the stock of long-term unemployed. Buoyancy might also increase the employment opportunities for the long-term unemployed. This compounds the composition effect if, as is generally believed, the best equipped will most likely escape first.

Sexton and O'Connell (1996) suggest that since the best equipped among the long-term unemployed tend to find work first it may be increasingly difficult to achieve further reductions as the remaining body of long-term unemployed people will tend to have an increasingly disadvantageous education and skills profile. Such a selective outflow would in all likelihood also mean that those unemployed people suffering the greatest degree of social exclusion would continue to be those least likely to get a reasonable job.

A distinction must also be made between the effects of economic buoyancy per se and the effects of labour market policy. While policy may influence inflows and outflows, the latter (ie outflows) is of most interest here. Policy interventions influence trends in outflows from long-term unemployment in two ways. First, in so far as interventions improve the competitiveness of the long-term unemployed relative to others in the labour market they increase the rate of outflow into mainstream employment. Secondly, interventions themselves represent additional outflows from measured long-term unemployment into employment or training programmes. Any expansion in such interventions will therefore tend to influence the downward trend in long-term unemployment. The impact of increased intervention in this direct sense on recent trends is hard to clearly establish. Sexton and O'Connell (1996) suggest that this effect is limited for the period they discuss:

"the total number of persons on these (CE) schemes rose from 17,000 to 31,000 between 1993 and 1994 and by a further 10,000 in the year to April 1995. It is difficult to pinpoint precisely what the impact of these schemes on the decreasing LTU trend would have been in the most recent period referred to (ie the decline of 25,000 between 1994 and 1995) but it would have been significantly less than 10,000, thus leaving a large share of the decrease to be explained by other causes."

The other possible causes of the decline are increased flows into employment or increased exit from the labour market. Sexton and O'Connell (1996) argue that the latter possibility is not supported by available LFS data on discouraged workers and inactivity and therefore conclude that the fall in long-term unemployment "occurred mainly as a result of persons entering employment".

Bond (1998) believes that the above conclusion is not wholly convincing. While the timing of the expansion of CE may not correspond exactly with the fall in LTU this may be because initially these new programmes were poorly targeted towards the long-term unemployed, reducing their impact. However, while direct employment programmes have only expanded marginally since 1993/94 they have become much more targeted on the long-term unemployed. Thus at least some of the impact of the earlier expansion would have occurred in subsequent years. The expansion of the Back to Work Allowance (BTWA) also has to be taken into account. The BTWA was introduced in September 1993 and was received by 19,000 people in 1997, with a further 2,000 in receipt of the Area Enterprise Allowance. The BTWA is a form of employment subsidy but the distinction between outflows into programmes and outflows into employment is somewhat blurred in the larger part of the programme which subsidised self-employment. Therefore, overall, the share of the decrease explained by entry into employment (or more particularly ‘open' employment) may be less than that suggested by Sexton and O'Connell (1996).

Subsequently, O'Connell and McGinnity (1997) concluded that long-term unemployment would have reached an even greater level throughout the 1992-1997 period were it not for State sponsored employment schemes such as CE, and some of the decline in long-term unemployment observed between 1994 and 1997 is attributable to this source.

Unemployment by Age and Duration

Table 3.9 Unemployment (000's) by Age and Duration, 1996

Age	<1 yr	1-2 yrs	2 yrs+ (000's)	Not Stated	U/E	LTU	(%)
Males
<25	13.9	6.6	7.9	0.9	29.4	14.5	49.3
25-39	14.8	7.0	18.0	0.6	40.5	25.0	61.7
40-54	8.1	3.9	20.0	0.2	32.2	23.9	74.2
55-64	1.6	1.0	3.8	0.0	6.3	4.8	76.2
65+	0.0	0.1	0.5	0.0	0.8	0.6	75.0
all	38.6	18.6	50.2	1.7	109.1	68.8	63.1
Females
<25	12.1	3.8	4.7	0.9	21.5	8.5	39.5
25-39	13.7	5.6	7.4	0.5	27.2	13.0	47.8
40-54	6.2	3.4	6.7	0.2	16.5	10.1	61.2
55-64	0.8	0.4	1.0	0.1	2.3	1.4	60.9
65+	0.0	0.0	0.5	0.4	0.9	0.5	55.6
all	32.8	13.3	20.3	2.1	68.4	33.6	49.1
Persons
<25	26.1	10.4	12.6	1.9	50.8	23.0	45.3
25-39	28.7	12.7	25.3	1.1	67.7	38.0	56.1
40-54	14.3	7.4	26.7	0.4	48.7	34.1	70.0
55-64	2.3	1.4	4.8	0.1	8.6	6.2	72.1
65+	0.1	0.1	1.0	0.5	1.7	1.1	64.7
all	71.4	31.9	70.4	3.8	177.6	102.3	57.6

Source: Larry Bond (1998), ‘Long-term unemployment; trends and issues' - Based on ILO estimates

Table 3.9 gives a detailed breakdown of unemployment based on a special tabulation of the 1996 LFS by age, sex and duration of unemployment. Long-term unemployment comprised 58% of total unemployment, being 63% and 49% respectively among males and females. Males accounted for two thirds (67%) of the long-term unemployed and a somewhat higher proportion (71%) of those unemployed for more than two years. The age profile of long-term unemployed females is younger than that for males. Thus, broadly, the predominance of males increases with age and with duration. 40% of the long-term unemployed are over forty and 23% are under twenty-five. The remainder (37%) are prime age workers aged between 25 and 39 years.

On a LFS basis the male rate of long-term unemployment is higher than that for females. At 9.5% the long-term unemployment rate among young males is significantly higher than for all other groups which are grouped fairly close around the average. Among adults, while there is some tendency for rates to fall with age, this is much less pronounced than among the unemployed as a whole. Thus the long-term share of total unemployment increases with age reaching 70% among those aged 40 and over.

Unemployment/Employment Educational Qualifications

One of the main impediments to effective labour market participation by the unemployed is their generally poor educational qualifications. Table 3.10 shows educational qualifications by unemployment/employment situation in 1997.

Table 3.10 Educational Qualifications

	Employed %	Unemployed %
No Qualifications	14.7	28.6
Inter/Group Certificate	24.4	35.0
Leaving Certificate	32.2	25.4
3rd Level, Non University	15.3	6.8
3rd level, University	10.6	3.5
Higher Degree	2.8	0.7
	100.0	100.0

Source: CSO - Derived from LFS Microdata, 1997

Just under 40% of those at work had, at best, an intermediate/group certificate. Over 30% had taken the Leaving Certificate examination while 28.7% had some form of higher education. The distribution of qualifications among the unemployed was less favourable, with 28.6% having no qualifications, and 35% having completed Intermediate/Group Certificate. Approximately 11% had completed some form of higher education.

3.6 Employment Outlook

The 1997 Medium Term Review predicts an annual average growth rate of between 5% and 5.5% in real GNP in the period up to 2003 and an employment rise of more than 285,000 (or over 35,500 per year on average) between 1995 and 2003. The overall employment increase foreseen in the Review is thus substantial, and it is inevitable that this results in sizeable increases for different occupations. The FÁS/ESRI "Occupational Employment Forecasts 2003," estimate that all sectors outside of agriculture are expected to record employment gains. The service sector is, for example, expected to benefit from particularly large increases and it follows, therefore, that the occupations mainly associated with this sector in general tend to show sizeable levels of future expansion.

Broad Occupational Groups Forecasts

The first distinction of interest to make in relation to the predicted employment changes is to differentiate between agricultural and non-agricultural occupations. The numbers at work in non-agricultural activities are forecast to increase by nearly 310,000 between 1995 and 2003, a relative rise of over 28% or 39,000 on an annual average basis. The numbers engaged in agricultural occupations are expected to fall over the same period, (by about 3,000 this year), with the result that the predicted 2003 level for this occupation, (some 111,500 persons), will then represent only 7.3% of the total numbers at work in the economy, compared with 11% in 1995 and nearly 16% in 1981. However, within the broad spectrum of occupations outside of agriculture, even though increases are expected for all activities, very different rates of expansion are forecast to apply to the various occupational sub-categories.

Figure 3.2: Employment Change By Occupation (%), 1995-2003

Source: FÁS/ESRI Occupational Employment Forecasts 2003

Figure 3.2 shows that the largest increases are predicted to occur for managerial and professional (ie degree level) workers; in each case the numbers employed are anticipated to rise by about 38% over the forecast period. The next most rapid growth rates relate to associate professionals (who would normally possess diploma or sub-degree qualifications) and persons working in sales and personal services for which the corresponding increases lie between 30 and 35%. Clerical workers are expected to grow in numbers at a somewhat slower pace, just under 30%.

Moving down the growth scale, the next broad category relates to skilled manual workers (both those engaged in maintenance and in core production) for which the projected rates of expansion are approximately 25% over the forecast period. However, the predicted growth rates for semi-skilled manual workers, who tend to be primarily trained "on the job" and do not require prior specialised qualifications, are significantly lower. For manual production operatives the relevant figure is just over 15%, while for transport and communications workers (who also tend to fall mainly in the semi-skilled category) the 1995/2003 growth rate is somewhat higher at 21%. The slowest rate of employment growth outside of agriculture, less than 7% over 1995-2003, is forecast for unskilled manual labourers.

3.7 Concluding Remarks

A number of trends and factors to be considered have been identified in this section:

• the population has increased and is set to increase further
• the number at work has increased
• female participation rates have increased with much of this growth being driven by part-time positions
• the number of unemployed persons has decreased
• the share of long-term unemployed to employed has stabilised and subsequently fallen recently
• the long-term decline in agricultural employment is set to continue
• a significant growth has occurred in service sector employment
• the FÁS/ESRI "Occupational Employment Forecasts 2003" anticipates large increases for the professions (especially in the technical areas and management)
• changes in the occupational mix towards those with higher education.
• The control group analysis in this Report (see Section 6) is based on 1993, 1996 and 1997 LFS data and therefore captures the trends identified above ie current labour market conditions have been explicitly built into the analysis.

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Review of CE Programme - September 1998 - Final Report